Which analysis maps outcomes after an initiating event and shows probabilities of consequences?

Which analysis maps outcomes after an initiating event and shows probabilities of consequences?

• A. Qualitative risk matrix.
• B. Leading indicators review.
• C. Fault tree analysis.
• D. Event tree analysis.

Answer: (D)

Event tree analysis focuses on what happens after an initiating event by laying out the possible sequences that can follow and attaching probabilities to each branch. It starts with the initiating event and then maps forward through a series of potential conditions or system states, with each path ending in a specific consequence and an overall probability for reaching that consequence. This forward, probabilistic mapping makes it ideal for evaluating how different outcomes—ranging from minor to severe—could occur and how likely each is, given the initiating event. Qualitative risk matrices, in contrast, are more about ranking risk by combining likelihood and severity in a qualitative way without detailing the sequence of events or their exact probabilities. Leading indicators review looks at early warning signals to predict risk, not at mapping how outcomes unfold after an initiating event. Fault tree analysis starts from a top undesired event and traces backward to root causes using logical gates to determine the probability of that top event, rather than charting forward outcomes and their probabilities. So the approach described—mapping outcomes after an initiating event and showing the probabilities of those consequences—fits event tree analysis.

Event tree analysis focuses on what happens after an initiating event by laying out the possible sequences that can follow and attaching probabilities to each branch. It starts with the initiating event and then maps forward through a series of potential conditions or system states, with each path ending in a specific consequence and an overall probability for reaching that consequence. This forward, probabilistic mapping makes it ideal for evaluating how different outcomes—ranging from minor to severe—could occur and how likely each is, given the initiating event.

Qualitative risk matrices, in contrast, are more about ranking risk by combining likelihood and severity in a qualitative way without detailing the sequence of events or their exact probabilities. Leading indicators review looks at early warning signals to predict risk, not at mapping how outcomes unfold after an initiating event. Fault tree analysis starts from a top undesired event and traces backward to root causes using logical gates to determine the probability of that top event, rather than charting forward outcomes and their probabilities.

So the approach described—mapping outcomes after an initiating event and showing the probabilities of those consequences—fits event tree analysis.